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Articles
Friday, April 19, 2024 by Christoph.Schmid|Comment closed
within category Affluent Luxury,Kering,LVMH
Kering has warned that Gucci's sales could fall by almost 20% in the first quarter of 2024, against an expected decline of 6.5%. Gucci has begun renewing its offer to rebuild its commercial momentum, although designer Sabato de Sarno's Ancora collection will take several months to roll out across t…
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Friday, April 19, 2024 by Christoph.Schmid|Comment closed
within category Energy Transition,EV,BMW,VW,Mercedes-Benz
In the EU, new car registrations fell by 5.2% y-o-y in March due to weak demand and high borrowing rates. Volkswagen Group sales fell by 9%, while those of luxury carmakers Mercedes-Benz and BMW dropped by 1.7% and 6.7% respectively. Germany recorded the biggest drop, down 6.2%. However, the result…
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Friday, April 19, 2024 by Christoph.Schmid|Comment closed
within category Affluent Luxury,High-End Luxury,LULU,L'Oreal,Fashion retailers,ULTA
While inflationary pressures globally have broadly eased, driven by lower input prices and less restrictive monetary stances, inflation related to services and wages has remained sticky. Geopolitical tensions in Europe and the Middle East pose risks to a sustained downward path of inflation. Fashio…
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Thursday, April 18, 2024 by Mr Schmid|Comment closed
within category Energy efficiency,Basic Materials,China
China's share of global manufacturing capacity is now above 80% in 11 clean-tech segments:
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Thursday, April 18, 2024 by Mr Schmid|Comment closed
within category cancer research,Cardiovascular disease
Projected share of new cancer diagnoses in 2024, by gender:
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Wednesday, April 17, 2024 by Christoph.Schmid|Comment closed
within category ASML Holding,ASML,Semiconductor Equipment & Testing
ASML, the Dutch semiconductor equipment supplier, released Q1 earnings. The biggest surprise comes from a very weak order intake. The consensus expected an order intake of €5.1bn, while the effective number is 29% below at €3.6bn.

ASML argues that the order intake is highly volatile and further…
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Wednesday, April 17, 2024 by Christoph.Schmid|Comment closed
within category Energy Transition,Metals and Mining,Iron,Ore,Deglobalization,Sanctions
Last week, the US and the UK announced new sanctions targeting Russian metals: deliveries of new Russian metals supplies into the London Metals Exchange and Chicago Mercantile Exchange warehouses are now banned. It caused a spike in some industrial metals on Monday (aluminum and nickel opened up by…
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Wednesday, April 17, 2024 by Christoph.Schmid|Comment closed
within category Luxury,Affluent,LVMH,European Luxury,Slower Growth
The reading of the most recent LVMH earnings results indicated an organic growth of 3%!

LVMH did not provide any formal guidance nor indications, yet the main comments from the conf call were that the pricing impact was +7% on its revenue and that the current market assumptions are very positive…
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Thursday, April 4, 2024 by Christoph.Schmid|Comment closed
within category Apple,iPhone,Sales Growth,Innovation,AAPL,AMZN,Robotics
Apple’s success is due to the iPhone launched in 2007. Ever since then, no other product line generated more revenue. Still, 17 years after its launch, the iPhone product line generates more than $200 billion in fiscal revenues for the company. It is ultra hard for Apple to come along with a produc…
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Friday, March 29, 2024 by Christoph.Schmid|Comment closed
within category Asia,China,BABA,Alibaba,Cloud,Tencent,Huawei,Cainiao,Trade war,Temu,ByteDance,Economic outlook,Dalio,Share buyback,Jack Ma,E-commerce,PDD,Syngenta AG
It’s hard not to recon Alibaba’s missed fortune. Shares of BABA have lost, since its peak in October 2020, about 75% of its value while other e-commerce platforms have benefited from the consumer spending spree during the pandemic and the move to IIoT.  
To catch up, the management of BABA had an …
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Thursday, March 28, 2024 by Christoph.Schmid|Comment closed
within category Investment outlook,AI,Energy,EPS Growth,Late cycle,Long-Duration Assets,QE,Warehouse and Datacenters
In little less than a ½ year, global stocks are up about 25 percent while at the same time, some companies related to AI were up 50 percent and more. 
Multiple driving forces are moving the market. Firstly, we note that easier financial conditions were positively impacting the market rather than b…
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Wednesday, March 27, 2024 by Christoph.Schmid|Comment closed
within category ATCA,Altice,Credit
The owner of Altice France, Billionaire Drahi, also considered a telecom tycoon, raised the possibility that bondholders may be forced to take larger-than-expected haircuts, increasing price volatility with bond valuations sharply lower. The news overshadowed progress on asset sales and debt refina…
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Monday, March 25, 2024 by Christoph.Schmid|Comment closed
within category XAG,Interest Rates,Interest cut,FED,SNB
This week’s surprise came for the SNB which surprised investors with the first rate cut in developed market. This year, the FED is expected to perform three interest rate cuts. Yet, there is no euphoria in the market which is still hanging around the AI trend. According to GS, provided the power ra…
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Thursday, March 21, 2024 by Christoph.Schmid|Comment closed
within category UAE,Egypt,Saudi Arabia,Middle East,Colonial Power,Economic cycle,Real-Estate,Bail-out,GDP,Foreign Exchane Reserves,MBZ
Egypt has had a troubled background for quite some time now. More recently, though, there were several headlines out that all interlink and bode well for the future of the country. Hence, the question: Is the investment plan unveiled by the UAE the centerpiece of Egypt’s rescue plan? 
In recent ye…
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Tuesday, March 19, 2024 by Christoph.Schmid|Comment closed
within category Evergrande,Enron,Luckin,PWC,Fraud,Real Estate,China
For quite some time now, we argued that the Chinese property market is due to release corrective action. As of yesterday, China's securities regulator confirmed that it has accused the management of Evergrande of inflating revenues by more than $78B in the two years before its debt default. The inf…
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Tuesday, March 19, 2024 by Christoph.Schmid|Comment closed
within category Japan,CB Policy,Interest rates,JPY
It took nearly a decade, but the Bank of Japan has finally called time on its 17-year-long interest rate status quo!
This step forward is a major move for Japan and its economy which is doing rather well these days – while other CBs have exited the global era of cheap money starting 2010, the BOJ…
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Saturday, March 16, 2024 by Christoph.Schmid|Comment closed
within category EnergyTransition,Utility,Wind,Solar,Hydrogen fuel cells,Renewabl Energy,Energy Storage,Hydrogen,Datacenter,Climate change,Nuclear power plant
Speed read:

Power demand related to AI and ChatGPT-like services is expected to increase at an annual average of 70% through 2027. 
New renewable energy infrastructure projects do not respond to this new demand.
…
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Monday, March 11, 2024 by Christoph.Schmid|Comment closed
within category China,COVID19,Economic recovery,GDP,GDP,Real-Estate,Deflation,Supply Chain,Technology Disruption
China’s economic recovery has been disappointing so far. There are several reasons for this: the 2nd largest economy suffers

from low consumer confidence,
an ongoing stock market rout,
US trade sanctions on key technologies,
a record high unemployment rate of 21,3 % in the…
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Saturday, March 9, 2024 by Christoph.Schmid|Comment closed
within category Top-Down View,Investment Case for 2024,Economic Outlook,Inflation,Coin,Crypto,Labor Market,KR,TGT
The US jobless rate climbed to a two-year high in February. However, hiring remained fairly healthy indicating a resilient labor market, which is positive for consumers overall.
While the labor market appears to be downshifting, wages are softly increasing which in turn does limit an inflation re…
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Friday, March 8, 2024 by Christoph.Schmid|Comment closed
within category AI,NVDA,KLA,AMAT,Tokyo Electron,LAM,NVDA,TSMC,AMD,SNPS,CDNS,Semiconductors & Semiconductor Equipment
The global semiconductor market has rallied by more than 50% in little more than 4 months. This substantial performance comes on the back of strong and global AI infrastructure spending. While the market is fueled by general hype around AI, there are some valuable developments taking place that jus…
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