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Articles
Monday, July 15, 2024 by Christoph Schmid|Comment closed
within category US Election,Interest rates,Market outlook
Last Saturday, in an assassination attempt, the former President and present Republican front-runner Donald Trump was wounded. This attack adds a new layer of stress and tumult to an already complex and undecided campaign
Political leaders from all over the world repelled the attack and the high …
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Monday, July 8, 2024 by Christoph Schmid|Comment closed
within category Europe,French elections,Central Policy,Debt,Economic outlook
French people tend to say that the Germans are naysayers! But this time round, they though thought it was opportune to roll the dice by not confirming the opinion expressed some two weeks ago! Analyses suggest that many disoriented voters weren’t able to imagine the consequences of the next step.
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Wednesday, July 3, 2024 by Mr Schmid|Comment closed
within category French elections,Europe,Central Bank policy
Historically, far-right parties have advocated for nationalism, isolationism, and anti-immigrant politics. Today, much of this historical hard approach is part of their history and the present leaders are supported by respected key personalities, aka they are well-intertwined with the economic and …
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Friday, June 28, 2024 by Mr Schmid|Comment closed
within category EU,Europe,Economic outlook,European Union,France,French elections
The president of France, Emmanual Macron, called for a snap election after his party lost voters in favor of the far-rightist-oriented RN. Next Sunday, electorates head to the polls for the first round with the second to follow on July 7. As of now, estimates indicate no absolute majority for RN no…
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Wednesday, June 19, 2024 by Christoph Schmid|Comment closed
within category Europe,French elections,Defense,Credit
A new political crisis in France, initiated by President Macron's decision to dissolve Parliament and call for early elections, has led to a resurgence of volatility in the credit market and a negative outlook for equities, especially for consumer-sensitive stocks and the defensive sector.
Is th…
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Tuesday, June 18, 2024 by Christoph Schmid|Comment closed
within category Saudi Arabia,Petro dollar,USD,Chian,Yuan,Coin,CBDC,The Line,Trojena,Sindalah,OXAGON,Neom,Amala
They have done it in the past, but now it is official. Saudi Arabia has confirmed that it will exit for good the petro-dollar system, to which it adhered for the last 80 years. This will allow the country to sell oil in currencies other than the USD. Therefore, Saudi Arabia can sell oil in Chinese …
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Friday, June 14, 2024 by Mr Schmid|Comment closed
within category France,French Banks,Credit,Europe,FrExit
What happened?

Sunday, June 10, 2024, France’s presidential party performed poorly at European elections while the historically Far-Right party Rassemblement National (“RN”) took almost one-third of the votes. In this context, there are three important observations: 

Over the past years, …
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Friday, June 7, 2024 by Christoph.Schmid|Comment closed
within category ECB,SNB,FED,Interest rates,Inflation
As expected, the European Central Bank cut its policy rates by 25 basis points on Thursday 06.06.2024. This is the first cut in almost five years amid signs of weakening inflation figures.
The ECB is the third central Bank of a developed market country to embark on a new easing cycle. Before this…
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Thursday, May 23, 2024 by Christoph.Schmid|Comment closed
within category FED,MS,GS,Interest rates,Inflation,Unemployment,MLP,Energy,REIT,Copper
Yesterday was a big day for the market. The market darling Nvidia reported blow-out financial results. Nvidia once again impressed investors, on both short-term faster-than-expected acceleration in revenues/margins and long-term astronomical prospects offered by AI. On the other hand, the Federal R…
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Friday, May 17, 2024 by Mr Schmid|Comment closed
within category Innovation,Server,Semiconductors,S-Curve,Fabs,Gen-Ai,AI,DDR,HBM,AI-Training,CPU,GPU,DDR,NAND,Logic Chips,Flops,Memory
The surge of interest in and use of generative AI translates to higher demand for semiconductors. To cover the ongoing increase to assist the decision-making process, the industry is set to innovate and produce more efficient chipsets. Given the demand configuration, the industry is facing a new S-…
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Thursday, May 16, 2024 by Christoph.Schmid|Comment closed
within category Top-Down View,Economic Outlook,Inflation,Labor Market,Interest rate cycle
Speed read:
Expect the U.S. Federal Reserve (FED) to start interest rate cuts in September.
Higher-than-expected inflation in the first quarter of 2024 reinforced the Fed’s caution and pushed back the rate cuts, initially anticipated for July.
Slowing inflation in the second half of the year …
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Wednesday, May 15, 2024 by Christoph.Schmid|Comment closed
within category AAL,AMSJ,Diversified Mining,BHP,M&A,SOTP,Copper,De Beers
BHP had made the bid for Anglo to cover and exploit synergies in the field of copper at a time when the world is moving away from fossil fuels toward more renewable energy projects and electric vehicles. The demand for cooper is expected to increase by about 20% by 2035.
Anglo American (AAL) reje…
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Monday, May 13, 2024 by Mr Schmid|Comment closed
within category Inflation,FED,Interest rates,Economic outlook,Labor market
Recent US inflation data has caused some concern among retail investors, but the Federal Reserve is still expected to ease policy starting in September. While the immediate risks are skewed upwards, there is no reason to maintain a more defensive stance on interest rates as part of a well-diversifi…
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Friday, April 26, 2024 by Christoph.Schmid|Comment closed
within category Maersk,Panama Canal,Shipping,Climate change
As predicted, the rainy season is arriving at the Panama Canal but is of little help in the immediate future as water levels are ultra-low. Hopefully, they will rise sufficiently to clear up the waterway in time for shipping’s busy time of year.
In January, just about 21 vessels crossed daily the…
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Friday, April 26, 2024 by Christoph.Schmid|Comment closed
within category Consumers,Inflation,Air Freight & Land-based Logistic,e-commerce
Consumers are hooked up with the convenience of e-commerce. It is easy, quick, and comfortable. Customers have fallen in love with the near-instantaneous gratification of online retailing as delivery takes less time than for them to go to the stores, do the shopping, and then return home.

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Saturday, April 20, 2024 by Christoph.Schmid|Comment closed
within category Halvings,Crypto,Bitcoin,Coin,Coin,CBDC,Swiss GDP,Societal behaviour
The total production of bitcoins is limited to 21 million units. Historically, halvings have driven the coin's performance between 290 % and 8447%! This is remarkable for an instrument with zero nominal value.
Out of the 21 million available coins, a little more than 19.5 million bitcoins have alr…
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Friday, April 19, 2024 by Christoph.Schmid|Comment closed
within category Affluent Luxury,Kering,LVMH
Kering has warned that Gucci's sales could fall by almost 20% in the first quarter of 2024, against an expected decline of 6.5%. Gucci has begun renewing its offer to rebuild its commercial momentum, although designer Sabato de Sarno's Ancora collection will take several months to roll out across t…
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Friday, April 19, 2024 by Christoph.Schmid|Comment closed
within category Energy Transition,EV,BMW,VW,Mercedes-Benz
In the EU, new car registrations fell by 5.2% y-o-y in March due to weak demand and high borrowing rates. Volkswagen Group sales fell by 9%, while those of luxury carmakers Mercedes-Benz and BMW dropped by 1.7% and 6.7% respectively. Germany recorded the biggest drop, down 6.2%. However, the result…
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Friday, April 19, 2024 by Christoph.Schmid|Comment closed
within category Affluent Luxury,High-End Luxury,LULU,L'Oreal,Fashion retailers,ULTA
While inflationary pressures globally have broadly eased, driven by lower input prices and less restrictive monetary stances, inflation related to services and wages has remained sticky. Geopolitical tensions in Europe and the Middle East pose risks to a sustained downward path of inflation. Fashio…
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Thursday, April 18, 2024 by Christoph.Schmid|Comment closed
within category Energy efficiency,Basic Materials,China
China's share of global manufacturing capacity is now above 80% in 11 clean-tech segments:
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