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Recent Macroeconomic Context in Oil Markets

• Geopolitical Tensions:
  The rising hostilities between Iran (Tehran) and Israel (Tel Aviv) are fueling growing nervousness in international oil markets. This situation has pushed prices higher, especially for Brent crude, which is more sensitive to global geopolitical risks than WTI, which is more influenced by U.S. domestic market dynamics.

• Brent/WTI Spread:
  The spread between Brent and WTI is widening due to this geopolitical uncertainty, reflecting the risk premium associated with tensions in the Middle East, particularly around the Strait of Hormuz.

• Supply Situation:
  Despite the tension, markets do not perceive any immediate disruptions in global supply. Oil continues to flow, including Iranian oil, and recent reports from OPEC and the International Energy Agency indicate that overall supply remains sufficient to meet current demand.

• Diplomatic Outlook:
  The United States is taking a two-week observation period before deciding on possible military involvement, which could also open the door to diplomatic negotiations. Discussions between Iran and European ministers suggest a possible de-escalation.

• Short-Term Risks:
  The worst-case scenario of a closure of the Strait of Hormuz—a key strategic passage for global oil transport—is considered unlikely in the short term but remains a major risk factor that could rapidly disrupt markets.

Analyst Recommendation

• Cautious Short-Term Stance:
  Analysts recommend increased vigilance in view of geopolitical risks that keep oil prices elevated. However, the absence of immediate supply disruptions and sufficient global supply justify a moderate approach without market panic.

• Monitoring Key Indicators:
  Investors are advised to closely monitor developments in Middle East diplomacy, as well as OPEC and IEA reports, to adjust their strategies according to the evolution of tensions or supply outlooks.

• Investment Strategy:
  The recommendation is generally to maintain a balanced exposure, benefiting from the current price upswing while preparing for a possible correction should a diplomatic agreement be reached promptly.