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Monetary policy remains a key lever for influencing the global economy and financial markets. In the United States, the Federal Reserve (Fed), and in the eurozone, the European Central Bank (ECB), manage interest rates and liquidity to regulate inflation, growth, and employment.
This week, the Fed met market expectations by cutting rates by 25 basis points, while announcing the end of its balance sheet reduction program as of December 1st. These measures reflect a balance between supporting the economy and preventing future inflationary pressures.
Jerome Powell emphasized that another rate cut in December is not inevitable, tempering investor expectations.
Bond yields have risen: the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield increased by about 10 basis points to 4.1%.
This communication occurs in a context of economic uncertainty, particularly due to the government shutdown and the lack of reliable growth and employment statistics.
European GDP figures exceeded expectations, mainly due to strong exports.
This robust growth allows the ECB to maintain interest rates unchanged, providing a stable monetary environment for markets and businesses.
In this environment, several points justify measured exposure to financial assets:
U.S. rates remain attractive, but bond market volatility is increasing, creating opportunities in high-quality bonds and bond ETFs.
Quality and dividend-paying stocks can benefit from European stability and a strong dollar, particularly in resilient sectors.
Geographic and sector diversification is essential to protect portfolios from rate fluctuations and macroeconomic uncertainty.
Still-high U.S. policy rates: support the yield of bonds and fixed-income financial products.
Eurozone growth above expectations: supports solid export-oriented and industrial sectors.
Clarity on monetary policy: allows investors to better calibrate exposure to risk assets.
Volatility in bond and equity markets due to Fed decisions.
Government shutdown and lack of reliable economic statistics in the U.S.
Geopolitical shocks or global slowdown affecting growth and international trade.
The current monetary policy creates a mixed environment:
Opportunities for high-quality bonds and resilient sectors.
Risk for assets sensitive to interest rates and macro volatility.
Recommendation: Monitor and prioritize a cautious, diversified, and sector-balanced allocation, taking into account global monetary and economic dynamics.
Knowledge is power.
